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His manifesto borrows heavily from that of the Christchurch shooter, who killed 51 people in New Zealand in 2019. These boards have become a gateway for white-nationalist extremism, through the sharing of racist memes, conspiracy theories and extremist literature and manifestos. The accused shooter in Buffalo claims to have been “radicalised” by online message boards such as Reddit, 4chan and 8chan, which he began browsing during the pandemic. But who is engineering it, and for what, is something the further fringes of the far right are all too keen to speculate on.”Įven on the “full-fat” far-right fringes, the great replacement theory accommodates a variety of conflicting ideas. “Both of them are, in a sense, conspiracy theories, saying this isn’t just patterns of immigration and demographic change, but this is being engineered. “One, we might call it ‘great replacement lite’, is saying: ‘There’s a huge demographic shift and these people tend to vote Democrat in the US or Labour in the UK.’” Then there is what Feldman calls the “full-fat” version, which says: “‘This is a conspiracy organised by elites – they’re deliberately undermining white majorities.’ Prof Matthew Feldman, a writer and specialist on rightwing extremism, explains that there are two versions of the theory. Viktor Orbán claims to fight against ‘a suicidal attempt to replace the lack of European, Christian children with migrants’ It is also vague enough to accommodate a spectrum of views from extreme to moderate, yet tucked within its three words are centuries’ worth of racist and white‑supremacist ideology. Neither overtly offensive nor racist, it has the ring of a respected academic proposition and slips easily into mainstream discourse. According to a recent YouGov poll, 61% of Trump voters and 53% of Fox News viewers believe it is true. Rather, it is a fringe concern and a mainstream one – espoused by “lone wolf” mass shooters and prominent politicians. It is not a new concept or a fringe concern. So where did the great replacement theory come from – and how did it become so prevalent? Cpac’s chairman, Matt Schlapp, even suggested outlawing abortion as a solution: “If you’re worried about this ‘replacement’, why don’t we start there? Start with allowing our own people to live.” Photograph: Brendan McDermid/ReutersĪ week later, Orbán was discussing the theory with American allies at a special meeting of the Conservative Political Action Committee (Cpac), a rightwing American group, in Budapest. Mourners at a vigil for victims of the Buffalo shooting on 14 May. “Here’s what we do know, for a fact: there’s a strong political component to the Democratic party’s immigration theory … and they say out loud: ‘We are doing this because it helps us to win elections.’” In the next breath, though, he doubled down. “We’re still not sure exactly what it is,” he claimed on his show on 17 May. Afterwards, he initially sought to distance himself from it. The Fox News host Tucker Carlson had mentioned replacement theories more than 400 times on his show before the shooting. For a brief moment in the aftermath, it seemed the horror of the latest tragedy would be enough to ensure that the conspiracy theory would be consigned to the fringes of the far right whence it came. The 18-year-old alleged shooter is said to have endorsed the “ great replacement theory” – the racist premise that white Americans and Europeans are being actively “replaced” by non-white immigrants. O n 14 May, in Buffalo, New York, 10 Black people were shot and killed in a grocery store.